Kim Snider
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Kimmunications Blog

May 15, 2009

Mutual Fund Returns - Skill or Luck?

Now that we must rely on our investment prowess to provide sustainable retirement income, it is more important than ever to understand investing in mutual funds does not create wealth - quite the opposite.

Two of the most pre-eminent economists alive today, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, have recently published a paper that revisits, yet again, the question of whether anyone can accurately pick stocks. Their paper is titled, "Luck versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Alpha Estimates."

Here is the long and short of it, from the abstract:

"Bootstrap simulations produce no evidence that any managers have enough skill to cover the costs they impose on investors. If we add back costs, there is some evidence of inferior and superior performance (non-zero true alpha) in the extreme tails of the cross section of mutual fund alpha estimates. The evidence for performance is, however, weak, especially for successful funds, and we cannot reject the hypothesis that no fund managers have skill that enhances expected returns." (emphasis mine)


So why do Americans continue to buy actively managed mutual funds when it almost guarantees sub-par performance? Largely because they don't know any better.

One of the most dangerous principles is social proof, which says in the absence of certainty, humans look around to see what others are doing and do the same thing. The more uncertainty, the more likely we are to stick close to the herd. This  behavior was very helpful, for the species, in getting to the top of the food chain. However, not so helpful in getting to the top of the investor food chain.

If you understand that markets don't reward all participants equally, you will also understand that doing what everyone else is not going to get you to the top of the investment heap.

If you are interested in what you might do as an alternative, I would encourage you to sit down with any number of our free special reports available to Snider Insiders (free registration required) and read them carefully. Specifically, I would recommend "How to Not Just Survive, But Thrive, in Turbulent Financial Markets."

Tip of the hat to Jim Mahar, of FinanceProfessor.com for the heads up on this paper.

No statement in this post should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice unless specifically stated as such. All investments involve risk including possible loss of principal. Complete information can be found on our website or by calling 1-888-6SNIDER.

September 02, 2008

Playing politics with your money

Because we're in the middle of the major party conventions, I feel like pointing out again just how similar politicians are to financial advisors. You can't escape the ads from both financial firms and candidates, and the political advertising will only get worse until early November.

At least the political ads will come to an end, if only temporarily. Sadly, we're stuck with the brokerage firms, mutual fund companies and financial advisors campaigning year-round.

All of these financial services firms are clamoring for your "vote." They tell you how if you select them over their competitor, they can help you find peace and prosperity. And yet, when asked how they'll solve your problems, it's by selling you the same garbage everyone else is selling.

Sound familiar? It's like the politicians who promise change, who promise to reduce your taxes or create jobs, but their so-called solutions are the same ones you hear year after year. There's no meaningful difference – it's the same old ideas, repackaged with a new fancy name.

The reason politicians make lofty promises is because they want to get elected. The reason they don't make the bold moves they promise after they're in office is because they want to keep their jobs. They think of their offices as jobs, and in order to keep getting elected, they have to make lots of empty promises without actually doing anything. They're not willing to make the truly tough choices or say the hard things, because that might make too many people mad, and they could lose their office.

Financial advisors are the same. They view their positions as jobs, too. They promise you great things so you hire them, and then they sell you the same mutual funds, annuities and similar products they've always sold because that's how they make their money. That's how they keep their jobs. Whether the products actually do you any good is secondary.

Whenever you talk to your financial advisor, pay close attention to what they're suggesting you do with your money. If you left one financial advisor because the products he suggested weren't helping you achieve your goals, what makes you think a new advisor selling the same products will do any better?

You've heard the expression when it comes to politics, "Vote with your pocketbook?" When you evaluate political candidates, what do you do? You pick the one who best matches up with your needs and ideals, right? Frequently that means the one who will represent your economic needs the best. It should be the same when you pick a financial advisor. Pick one based on his or her ideals, the one whose approach best fits your goals. Learn to see past the clever advertisements and sales pitches to find out whether your advisor is a good fit.

To help, I encourage you to download a free Snider Advisors Special Report we've just made available, called "12 Red Flags When Dealing with a Financial Advisor." It's a list of things you should look out for, whether you already have a financial advisor or you're shopping for a new one. Think of it as a voter's guide, but for financial advisors. To download it, go to www.kimsnider.com. (Note: The report will be free for a limited time, so download yours today!) If you have a friend who could benefit from the Special Report, please send them a link to this post so they can download a copy.


Kim Snider is the President and Founder of Snider Advisors, an investment adviser registered with the SEC, focused on teaching individual investors a sensible, long-term investment approach focused on maximizing cash flow. For more information on Snider Advisors or the Snider Investment Method, please visit snideradvisors.com. Her book, How to Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps To Put Your Financial House in Order, will be in bookstores October 1, 2008.

Snider Advisors makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 888-6SNIDER to request the Snider Investment Method® Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments, including the Snider Investment Method™ are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.

August 07, 2008

Lessons from the investment bank disaster

I saw last week that Merrill Lynch and Citigroup were in the news again for the exotic mortgage-backed investments that have helped to screw up the credit markets.  Merrill sold off nearly $31 billion of the investments for just 22 cents on the dollar. Citigroup is expected to write down $8 billion because of its involvement in these crazy investments.

Lots of analysts and reporters are talking about how these losses reflect the trickiness of the financial markets and how these collateralized debt obligations were risky ventures from the start. But I don't think that's really the lesson to take from these announcements.

It didn't take a genius to see what was happening. The big investment banks created a bubble, not unlike the tech bubble of a few years back. Everybody knew that eventually the bubble would burst and that things would get ugly. Everybody knew these investments were risky. But the investment banks ran into them head-on. Why? Because of their compensation system. There was the potential to make huge sums of money in commissions, so they were incentivized to take on huge amounts of risk. 

The investment banks also felt bullet-proof. They figured that they were too big to fail, and that the government would bail them out if they got into trouble. In other words, you and I would be on the hook if things went south.

A money manager at one of these investment banks has an incentive to take as much risk as he can with other people's money. He gets paid for gathering assets, and the more assets he brings in, the more he gets paid. The way to bring in more assets is to show outstanding performance over a short period of time and get publicity in the major financial magazines. The way to show outstanding performance in the short term is generally to take on excessive amounts of risk.

By taking that extra risk, the money manager puts his clients in position to lose a lot more down the road -- but the manager doesn't care. Why should he? He doesn't get penalized as a manager for the losses his clients get; he gets paid for the assets he brings in.   

This shows the systemic problem behind Wall Street's compensation structure. Whether you're talking about these exotic investments such as CDO's or the way that fund managers handle your funds, it doesn't matter. Wall Street types are incentivized to put their interest ahead of yours, and they do not suffer the same consequences as you do when you lose money.

These managers are paid handsomely and are widely regarded as the best in the business. They're supposedly geniuses. But if they can screw up their own companies so bad, do you really want them managing You, Inc.? 

The moral is clear. When Wall Street appears in genius mode, raking in huge profits on mysterious products and complex trades, the secret isn't genius at all. It's that hubris is running wild, and so is risk. And whether it's tomorrow or five years hence, risk will jump from the shadows, knife in hand, to cut genius down to size.

-- Shawn Tully, editor-at-large, Fortune Magazine

If you've been reading my blog or newsletter for a while, you probably know that I have six principles underlying my investment philosophy. Number One is "Most investments are designed to make Wall Street rich, not you," and everything else just cascades down from that.

I think the credit and liquidity problems we're seeing now is a fallout from the greed on Wall Street, and it's a prime example of why I advocate managing your own money. You are uniquely qualified to do it, assuming that you are properly educated. The good news is that it's not hard to learn. It's not a big mystery that takes years and years to decipher.

Even if you choose to have someone else manage your money, you still need to be educated. A properly educated investor is subject to the least amount of conflict-of-interest and can better distinguish between a good investment and a clever sales pitch.

Educating investors is what I do, and helping people succeed is what I love. If you're ready to take the reins of your own portfolio, or if you just want to be a more educated investor so you can make better, more informed decisions, let's chat. Give me a call at 214-245-5236, 1-888-6SNIDER, or send me an email.

SOURCES:
1. Story, Louise, "Write-Down Is Planned at Merrill," The New York Times, 29 July 2008. [accessed 30 July 2008]
2. Dowell, Andrew and Ed Welsch, "Merrill Deal May Cause Banks to Revalue Debt," The Wall Street Journal, 30 July 2008. [accessed 04 August 2008]
3. Tully, Shawn, "Wall Street's Money Machine Breaks Down," Fortune, 12 November 2007. [accessed 01 August 2008]


Kim Snider is the President and Founder of Snider Advisors, an investment adviser registered with the SEC, focused on teaching individual investors a sensible, long-term investment approach focused on maximizing cash flow. For more information on Snider Advisors or the Snider Investment Method, please visit snideradvisors.com. Her book, How to Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps To Put Your Financial House in Order, will be in bookstores October 1, 2008.

Snider Advisors makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 888-6SNIDER to request the Snider Investment Method® Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments, including the Snider Investment Method™ are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.

July 09, 2008

No Skin in the Game

I saw this quote on the wall at the grocery store the other day:

"'Tis an ill cook that cannot lick his own fingers."
– William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

I always thought the quote was about cooking. But maybe the Bard was also trying to warn us about mutual fund managers.

According to a report from Morningstar, almost half (46%) of the U.S. stock mutual fund managers studied haven’t invested a dime in the funds they manage. And it gets worse from there, says Morningstar’s Russel Kinnel:

Fully 59% of foreign-stock funds have no ownership, 65% of taxable-bond funds have no ownership, 70% of balanced funds put up goose eggs, and 78% of muni funds lack ownership.

The data Morningstar used cover 6,000 funds. In 2004, the SEC began requiring fund managers to disclose their personal holdings, partly as a response to several scandals in the mutual fund industry. (There were so many scandals around 2003, I can’t even begin to list them all. Wikipedia has a good account, though.)

The SEC only requires managers to disclose the range of their holdings, and they’re pretty broad ranges:

• $1 - $10,000
• $10,001 - $50,000
• $50,001 - $100,000
• $100,001 - $500,000
• $500,000 - $1 million
• < $1 million

No matter how broad the ranges, though, these disclosures can give us an idea of how much skin the manager has in the game. Too often, the manager has nothing at stake. Kinnel continues:

There are really only two excuses for not owning a fund you run. First, if you run a single-state municipal-bond fund for a state other than the one you live in, it doesn't make sense to own that fund as you won't benefit from the tax breaks. Second, managers who are citizens of foreign countries have a good excuse if their country bars investment in U.S.-domiciled funds.

A number of foreign-stock funds are run by foreign citizens and that may account for the ownership difference between U.S.-stock funds and international-stock funds.

For managers who run niche funds or run a lot of funds, there's good reason for them to be at the lower end of the ranges, but not at zero. The number of managers showing no faith in their process is staggering. With the two exceptions I spelled out, I can't think of why anyone should invest in a fund that its own manager doesn't invest in. True, higher investment levels aren't a guarantee of success or an ethical manager but at least they show that managers believe in the funds and they pay some of the costs and taxes that the rest of shareholders do.

Amen! This is yet another example of how Wall Street doesn’t have your best interests at heart. If their interests aren’t aligned with yours, how can you trust them? If they don’t trust themselves with their own dollars, what makes you think you should trust them with yours?

As for my husband and me, the bulk of our total investable assets (excluding our equity in real estate and our business) is in the Snider Investment Method®. The remainder includes our emergency fund, of course; some money in qualified retirement plans; money needed for something specific within the next two years; or accounts that are too small to be invested using the Snider Investment Method®. All of that money sits in a savings account, money market funds, T-bills, or laddered CDs. We would own U.S. Treasury bonds and TIPS as well, but at the moment we don’t.

Everyone has a different situation, so your investment objectives and needs may differ from mine. Still, you should know that when it comes to investment methodology, I eat my own cooking. Can your advisor say the same?

SOURCES:
1. Kinnel, Russel. “Managers’ Investment Secrets Revealed.” http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=241183&page=/OwnershipArticle (accessed 08 July 2008)
2. “2003 Mutual-Fund Scandal.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Mutual-fund_scandal (accessed 08 July 2008)


Kim Snider is the President and Founder of Snider Advisors, an investment adviser registered with the SEC, focused on teaching individual investors a sensible, long-term investment approach focused on maximizing cash flow. For more information on Snider Advisors or the Snider Investment Method, please visit snideradvisors.com. Her book, How to Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps To Put Your Financial House in Order, will be in bookstores October 1, 2008.

Snider Advisors makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 888-6SNIDER to request the Snider Investment Method® Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments, including the Snider Investment Method™ are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.

June 04, 2008

Hidden Cameras and Annuity Salesmen

I've been fielding a lot of questions lately about equity-indexed annuities. Someone here in Dallas is advertising an annuity product that he says guarantees a 7 percent annual return with no downside risk.

Of course, that oversimplifies what the product actually is, which is an insurance contract with a payout value tied to a stock market index like the S&P 500. Equity-indexed annuities are really no better than their close cousins, variable annuities, and they're sold in much the same way.

Set aside for a moment that there are much better investment vehicles out there. My biggest problem with these annuities is the way they're sold. These products are frequently on the SEC and FINRA watch lists because they're aggressively sold to inappropriate investors, especially seniors.

Chris Hansen, the Dateline reporter famous for his hidden-camera investigations, recently focused on the annuity business. What he found is disturbing, awful, and not at all surprising.

See for yourself:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24108012#24108012

Play close attention to the way these guys give themselves fancy titles that don't mean anything and make promises that just aren't true. Also check out the "Annuity University," where salespeople are taught how to hit seniors' fear, anger and greed buttons and how to deflect questions about the products' liquidity and safety.

What disturbed me most, though, is how these scumbags try to buy credibility. They can pay $2,500 to have their name and photo printed on a book they didn't write. They can have their picture on the cover of a fancy-looking magazine, right beside Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. And they can read a script for a phony national radio show and give out the audio CDs to potential customers.

This obviously struck a nerve with me, as I have a book coming out in October (which I did write myself), numerous articles on the web and in print (ditto), and a real radio show where we're live and taking calls from real people almost every week.

The ways these guys distort the truth to convey a sense of credibility show why the industry has such a bad reputation. If these guys will lie to you about their credentials, what else do you think they'll lie about?

People want to know who they're really dealing with. They want truth and honesty. If you're a commissioned salesperson, fine -- tell me that up front so I know what I'm getting into. The problem with the financial services industry is that there's so much incentive for advisors to confuse and mislead their investors. People deserve much more respect than that.


Kim Snider is the President and Founder of Snider Advisors, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor, focused on teaching individual investors a sensible, long-term investment approach focused on maximizing cash flow. For more information on Snider Advisors or the Snider Investment Method and how to stop enriching your investment advisors at your expense, please visit snideradvisors.com. Her book, How to Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps To Put Your Financial House in Order, will be in bookstores October 1, 2008.

Snider Advisors makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method® Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments, including the Snider Investment Method™ are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.

 

May 19, 2008

Financial Advisor Red Flags - Part 2

Last week, I listed six red flags to watch out for when dealing with a financial advisor or broker. To recap, they were:

  1. Invoking a dead relative in an effort to keep your account
  2. Recommending variable annuities when they're not appropriate -- such as in an IRA
  3. Recommending you move money out of your 401(k) or stop contributing. Also: recommending that you borrow from your 401(k)
  4. Constructing a portfolio for you with an expected annual return of less than 10%
  5. Recommending only mutual funds, especially those that are only available through his/her company
  6. Accepting a commission from products they sell

The post was getting long, so I stopped there. This week, I'd like to continue where we left off with more red flags, some of which were suggested by readers like you. Again, these are in no particular order.

7.  Suggesting that you borrow from your home equity to invest

I am not an advocate of taking a loan for the specific purpose of investing. This includes taking out a home equity loan to play the arbitrage game many salesmen are suggesting these days.

An arbitrage is when you try to take advantage of a price or interest rate differential between two markets. For example, you take out a home equity loan at, say, 6 percent and invest the money in a mutual fund with an expected return of 10 percent.  If successful, you would profit from the 4 percent spread between the loan and the mutual fund.

Salesmen will claim that this strategy is low-risk or even risk-free, but it isn't. What happens if the mutual fund doesn't return 10 percent? What if it returns only 5 percent? Or if it loses money? Compound interest works against you and you stand to lose a lot more than you bargained for.

Also, you can't forget about the fees, commissions and taxes involved in such a strategy. Even if there's a positive spread, these can severely cut into your returns. For me, it doesn't seem worth it.

8. Assuring you that an investment cannot lose money.

An employee of mine showed me a postcard she received from a financial advisor near her neighborhood. He advertised a historical annual return of almost 15 percent with "no known history of loss." The implication is that he can deliver high returns with no risk. Sounds like the perfect investment, right?
RED FLAG! There is no such thing as a risk-free return above what is guaranteed by the U.S. government. It's a basic principle of economics: reward is the profit for risk. As an investor, your job is to manage the trade-offs between risk and reward. A risk-free investment such as a bond will give you about 4-5 percent. If you want more than that -- and most of us do -- you have to be willing to take on a little more risk.

9. Claiming he/she can turn a small amount into a large amount

I heard an advisor on the radio the other day claim he could get his clients a 500 percent return with very little risk. He suggested that he could get that return through a combination of techniques, including investing in real estate.

Is he saying that real estate is low risk? Millions of homeowners, particularly along the West Coast, would disagree! Since the recent housing bubble burst, home prices across the country have been declining steadily. In the top 10 metropolitan areas, home prices declined more than 13 percent since last year, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Different markets are performing differently, but nowhere are prices ratcheting higher right now. Common sense tells me this claim of a risk-free 500 percent return is simply bogus.

Another financial advisor-type is claiming that he can show you how to turn $10,000 into $3 million in just a couple of years and that he has a 30-year track record to prove it. I did a little math… if he started with $10,000 30 years ago and did what he says, he'd have billions of dollars by now. I haven't seen his name on the Forbes list of the world's richest people, so something tells me his claim doesn't hold water, either.

When someone makes outrageous claims like these, they're playing to your greed. Just remember that with higher returns comes much bigger risk, and if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

10. Claiming he/she can successfully and consistently time the market.

Some advisors love to claim that they can tell you when to get out of the market and when to get back in. They'll tell you they have the tools and the research staffs that nobody else has. What they won't tell you is that all the evidence says it can't be done successfully over the long term. Read my recent post on market timers.

11. Attempting to sell you on a fast-moving trend

A former criminal judge told me about numerous schemes that crossed his bench over the years. One of them involved an advisor who sold fractional shares of oil and gas royalties.

"They will lure an investor in with a higher-than-normal return, playing on your greed. Then they come back again several months later and want you to buy more of that share for an even higher return. The house of cards will ultimately fail, leaving the investor with nothing."
A guy called me up not too long ago and offered to sell me fractional shares in something like this, saying that because of rapidly rising energy prices, now is the time to invest. I told him, "If you're calling me, trying to get me to pitch your oil deals to my clients, this tells me that this is the top of the oil rush, not the bottom."

The more people who are calling you and taking out ads regarding a fast-moving trend, it probably means it's time to get out, not get in. To make money, you have to buy when everyone else is irrationally selling and sell when everyone else is irrationally buying. When the sales pitches are fast and furious, alarm bells should go off.

12.  Offering you professional services for free.

One reader told me he was suspicious when his CPA offered to do his taxes for free. What kind of a CPA does that? In this reader's case, it was because the accountant wanted him to open an investment account through him. The investment account would probably generate more in commissions and fees than he would charge for doing a tax return.

This isn't necessarily wrong, but it is something to be aware of. Look, people in the financial services business -- or any business, for that matter -- always get paid. None of us does this for free. As a customer, you need to know how they get paid. Would you rather pay them up front and know what you're paying for, or would you rather take your chances with hidden fees and commissions? Look for transparency in pricing.

There are, of course, many more red flags to watch out for. Keep emailing me your suggestions, and I'll keep adding to the list.

SOURCES:
1. Glink, Ilyce. "Homeowners react to falling real estate values." The Boston Globe, May 13, 2008 (accessed May 15, 2008).
2. "The World's Billionaires." Forbes, March 5, 2008 (accessed May 15, 2008)


Kim Snider is the President and Founder of Snider Advisors, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor, focused on teaching individual investors a sensible, long-term investment approach focused on maximizing cash flow. For more information on Snider Advisors or the Snider Investment Method and how to stop enriching your investment advisors at your expense, please visit snideradvisors.com. Her book, How to Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps To Put Your Financial House in Order, will be in bookstores October 1, 2008.

Snider Advisors makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method® Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments, including the Snider Investment Method™ are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.

May 07, 2008

Financial Advisor Red Flags

I've been talking with a number of our prospects the last couple of weeks, and the stories they tell of being ripped off by various financial advisors and investment schemes are amazing. The chutzpah of some of these advisors is incredible - I don't see how they can sleep at night when they sell so many investments that are clearly designed to benefit the advisor more than the client.

I thought it would be useful to jot down some of the things to look out for when dealing with a financial advisor or broker. We'll call these Financial Advisor Red Flags. Here they are, in no particular order:

1. Invoking a dead relative in an effort to keep your account.

I met with someone the other day - I'll call her Ann - who gave this egregious example. Her husband was a rapidly climbing young executive before he died unexpectedly. Fortunately, he had life insurance.

Ann said she didn't know anything about investing, so she contacted the salesman who sold her husband the policy. The insurance guy sold her all sorts of insurance products like variable annuities. He convinced her that all these products were in her best interest. But after a couple of years, Ann looked at her investments and realized that they didn't meet all her objectives, so she called up the insurance guy and told him she wanted to pull money out.

Instead of defending the investments he sold her on their merits, he tried to shame her in to staying put. "Your husband trusted me," he said, "and he would be so disappointed in you."

I wish I could say that surprised me, but I've heard stories like this from lots of people. Some of them inherited their parents' financial advisor when they inherited money, and were guilt-tripped when they tried to move the investments somewhere else. Others said their advisor invoked the "but we're friends!" card: "But we've been in Rotary together for 20 years! I thought you trusted me!"

Any time a financial advisor uses a guilt-trip or an emotional plea to try to keep your account, that should be a big red flag.

2. Recommending variable annuities when they're not appropriate - such as in an IRA.

Red_flag_2 I've written a lot about the problems with variable annuities. They cost too much, they rely on terrible mutual funds that underperform the market, the list goes on. (You can read up on the problems with variable annuities here.) But my primary objection is that they're appropriate for only a small portion of investors. Most of us would be better off in something else.

I get particularly mad when I hear about an advisor selling someone a variable annuity inside their IRA. An IRA is already a tax-advantaged vehicle. A variable annuity is tax-advantaged, too - it makes absolutely no sense to have one tax-advantaged investment inside of another.

3. Recommending you move money out of your 401(k) or stop contributing.

This is financial malpractice at its worst. Sure, 401(k) and similar plans have their faults, but for most of us they form the cornerstone of our retirement plan.  Until you leave your employer and are eligible to roll over the money into an IRA, you probably should stick with your 401(k) plan. And if your employer matches part of your contributions, that's free money you'd be leaving on the table by shifting your savings elsewhere.

It's also a red flag when an advisor recommends you borrow from your 401(k). Treat your retirement funds as sacred. If you need cash to deal with an emergency, pretend that 401(k) money doesn't exist. If you borrow from your 401(k), you're robbing yourself of the power of compounding and exposing yourself to penalties if you leave your job before the loan is paid off.  Read more about 401(k)s here.

4. Constructing a portfolio for you with an expected annual return of less than 10%.

Many advisors still ascribe to the old way of thinking, that the best way to ensure your money lasts as long as you do is with a typical 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds). But this construction is too conservative, and its expected annual return is only 8%. That 8% may give you a high probability you won't run out of money, but it almost assures you won't be able to buy anything with the money you have left.  In other words, the 60/40 portfolio doesn't take into account inflation and taxes.

To pay yourself 4% of your portfolio each year in retirement (the generally accepted "safe" withdrawal percentage), keep up with the historical rate of inflation and pay Uncle Sam at a marginal tax rate of 25%, you have to earn a 10% return. The formula is your withdrawal rate plus inflation divided by one minus your marginal tax rate, or (4 + 3.5)/(1-0.25). If you want to withdraw more or if your tax rate is higher, you'll have to earn an even higher return.

So a double-digit annual return is your goal. If your advisor builds a portfolio for you that is designed to return less than that, you should look for another advisor.

5. Recommending only mutual funds, especially those that are only available through his/her company.

I don't like mutual funds as a rule. I really don't like actively managed mutual funds because their high fees virtually guarantee over time that you will underperform the market itself. So mutual funds are bad enough - but conflict-of-interest from your broker or financial advisor makes it even worse.

A groundbreaking study by Daniel Bergstresser and Peter Tufano of the Harvard Business School and John Chalmers of the University of Oregon found that mutual funds sold by financial advisors badly underperformed the funds selected by investors on their own. The study is titled "Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Brokers in the Mutual Fund Industry," and you can read more about it here. You can also listen to my interview with one of the authors here.

A lot of financial advisors will try to steer you toward proprietary funds that are only available through their company. For example, an Ameriprise advisor may try to steer you toward RiverSource mutual funds, which are only available through Ameriprise. It's not because these funds are the best performing. It's because the financial advisor's employer pays him or her to sell the firm's product. It's another example of conflict-of-interest and is a reason to avoid commission-based advisors. For that matter, let's make accepting commissions its own flag:

6. Accepting a commission from products they sell

Any advisor who takes a commission off the products they sell you has a conflict of interest. You can't tell whether the product he recommends is really in your best interest or if he is recommending the product because it pays him well.

If you do use a financial advisor, your best bet is to go with a "fee-only" advisor, one who doesn't get paid commission on the products they recommend. That's the only way you can be sure to avoid the conflict-of-interest.

This post is getting pretty long, so let's stop there for now. I have lots of other red flags to watch out for, and I'll post those later on. If you have a suggestion for a red flag, send me an email. I will compile your suggestions for a future post.

April 25, 2008

Lack of a financial education hurts the super-rich, too

Conventional wisdom holds that the ultra-wealthy have many more investment advantages than you or I. After all, they have access to highly selective hedge funds. It’s an exclusive club where the stakes are high and the rewards are out of this world.

Or that’s what they want us to believe.

Hedges

The big hedge funds claim to offer much higher returns than what the normal investor can get through mutual funds. That’s why the buy-in is so high. But it turns out, hedge fund performance isn’t much better than that of run-of-the-mill mutual funds. What’s more, the incentive programs given to the managers leave hedge funds open to fraud and chicanery.

As with so many problems on Wall Street, this has to do with the compensation system. The manager of an ordinary actively managed mutual fund may take a fee of 1-2%. That’s bad enough, but it’s chump change compared to what the hedge fund manager gets. The typical fee arrangement for a hedge fund manager is usually 1 or 2% of the assets PLUS 20 percent of the returns that exceed some benchmark. So let’s say a fund has $200 million in assets and has a benchmark rate of return of 7%. After the first year, the fund was up 10%, or worth $220 million. The manager would earn $4.4 million for the management fee, plus $1.3 million for beating his benchmark (20% of the 3% extra gain).

You can imagine how this incentive arrangement just invites manipulation – and leaves hedge fund investors exposed to tremendous risk.

According to a study from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School:

…[I]t is very hard to set up an incentive structure that rewards skilled hedge fund managers without at the same time rewarding unskilled managers and outright con artists. Furthermore, any incentive scheme that does not directly penalize underperformance can be gamed by the manager so that his expected fees are at least as high, relative to expected gross returns, as for the most skilled managers.

The authors show how an enterprising hedge fund manager can use the derivatives market to generate what look like above-average returns. By placing highly leveraged bets on unlikely events, the manager can generate enormous amounts of cash. If his bets are right, the fund investors are very happy. If he's wrong, the fund collapses and the investors lose almost everything. Either way, the manager stands to make a fortune regardless of how the fund performs. This is a process the authors call “piggy-backing.”

In mutual funds and hedge funds, the term “alpha” is used to explain the part of a fund's performance that isn't explained by market forces. In other words, it's the result of the manager's supposed skill. By piggy-backing, an unskilled manager can fake alpha. By writing a number of covered calls using his investors' money as collateral, “it allows an unskilled manager to mimic a target series of excess returns without having the slightest idea about how a skilled manager would actually generate them.” [emphasis in original]

Dean P. Foster, one of the authors of the study, gives an example of this strategy at work:

An enterprising man named Oz sets up a new fund with the stated aim of earning 10 percent in excess of some benchmark rate of return, say 4 percent. The fund will run for five years, and investors can cash out at the end of each year if they wish. The fee is the standard '2 and 20': 2 percent annually for funds under management, and a 20 percent incentive fee for returns that exceed the benchmark.

Although he has no investment track record, Oz has a smooth manner, a doctorate in physics and many rich acquaintances. He raises 100 million and opens shop. He then studies the derivatives market and finds an event on which the market places fairly long odds, say 9:1. In other words, it costs .10 to buy an option that pays 1 if the event occurs and 0 otherwise. The nature of the event is unimportant: it might be a large fall in the stock market, Florida getting hit by a Category 5 hurricane or Russian President Vladimir Putin dying before the end of the year.

Next Oz writes some covered options on this event and sells 110 million of them in the derivatives market. This obligates him to pay the option holders 110 million if the event does occur and nothing if it does not. He collects 11 million on the options. To cover his obligations in case the 'bad' event occurs, he uses the investors' money plus the proceeds from the options to buy 110 million in one-year Treasury bills yielding 4 percent, which he deposits in escrow. This leaves 1 million in "pocket money," which he uses to lease some computer terminals and hire a few geeks to sit in front of them, just in case his investors drop by.

The probability is ninety percent that the bad event does not occur and Oz owes nothing to the option holders. With a gross return (before expenses) of 15,400,000, the investors are thrilled, and so is Oz. He collects 2 million in management fees (of which he has only spent 1 million), plus a performance bonus equal to 20 percent of the 'excess return', namely, 20 percent of 11,400,000. All in all, Oz nets over 3 million for doing absolutely nothing.

Foster says Oz can repeat this scheme next year. If his bets continue to pay off, he'll attract more investors and pocket more money. If the fund collapses, Oz can simply close the fund early and start a new one next year.

This scheme is not illegal, but it is risky – risky for his investors, but not for himself. In no scenario will Oz actually lose money. Actually, the more risk he takes with this investors' money, the more he stands to profit. That's the way his incentive structure works. You may get screwed if the fund collapses, but he walks away with millions.

This is yet another example of how Wall Street’s compensation system puts the interest of brokers and fund managers ahead of the investor. No matter how much money you’re working with, unless you know what’s really going on, you’re just asking to be taken advantage of.

That’s why it pays to learn as much as you can about how Wall Street really works, and why you ultimately should be in control of your own investments. Wall Street is set up to take advantage of the little guy, even if that little guy has millions and millions of dollars.

SOURCES:

1. Foster, Dean P. and H. Peyton Young, “The Hedge Fund Game: Incentives, Excess Returns, and Piggy-Backing.” March 2008. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2007/1114_hedge_fund_young/1114_hedge_fund_young.pdf (Accessed April 23, 2008).

2. Foster, Dean P. and H. Peyton Young, “Hedge Fund Wizards,” Washingtonpost.com, December 19, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/1219_hedgefunds_young.aspx (Accessed April 23, 2008).


Kim Snider is the President and Founder of Snider Advisors, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor, focused on teaching individual investors a sensible, long-term investment approach focused on maximizing cash flow. For more information on Snider Advisors or the Snider Investment Method and how to stop enriching your investment advisors at your expense, please visit snideradvisors.com. Her book, How to Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps To Put Your Financial House in Order, will be in bookstores October 1, 2008.

Snider Advisors makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method® Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments, including the Snider Investment Method™ are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.

March 26, 2008

March Mutual Fund Madness - Part One

Photo I spent several days this week in New York and Chicago meeting with reporters from the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones News Wire, Smart Money, The Street.com and others.  (This is a picture I took, with my cell phone camera, of the New York Stock Exchange. Look to the right at the guy with the helmet, flak jacket and rifle. The military-like security was kind of unsettling.) Anyway, as I made the rounds, talking with reporters about Snider Advisors and the Snider Investment Method, I had the opportunity to give them my take on the problems with traditional investments.

We talked about traditional cash flow investments like bonds, preferreds and dividend paying stocks - none of which pay enough. We talked about the reverse compounding problem with a capital appreciation portfolio. I gave Janet Paskin, from SmartMoney, an unscheduled earful on variable annuities.

But looking back, it occurs to me, I never even talked about one of my favorite whipping posts - actively managed mutual funds. In fact, I can't think of the last time I wrote about the systematic fleecing of unsuspecting mutual fund owners.

What has gotten in to me? I must be getting soft! You know what? I have two hours to kill on this flight. How about we haul them out - just for old times sake?

First of all, mutual funds cover a pretty broad spectrum. There are funds that invest in stocks, bonds, money market funds, REIT's - all kinds of stuff. For now, let's limit the discussion to funds that invest in stocks.

There are closed end funds which trade on the exchanges, similar to a stock, and then there is what we think of as the more traditional fund, where you purchase your shares from the mutual fund company, either directly, or through a broker. Within that category, there are actively managed funds and passive funds or index funds.

An actively managed fund is one where the fund manager is picking stocks, based on whatever criteria he or she uses, in an attempt to outperform the market. An index fund just holds the stocks in the index it is trying to mimic and only changes those stocks when the stocks in the index are changed. Other than that, they rebalance on a constant basis to make sure the fund reflects the weightings of each stock in the index, and that is all that is done.

My beef is with actively managed, equity mutual funds. I will tell you right off the bat that I am not a fan of actively managed mutual funds. In fact, people kid me. You know how companies have tag lines that go with their company name, like “Built Ford Tough” or “Like A Rock”? People tease that my company tag line should be “We'd Rather Stick Pins in Our Eyes than Put Money in a Mutual Fund!”

The problems with actively managed funds fall into three broad categories: 1) Lack of control; 2) Lack of transparency; and 3) Lousy performance. I will outline each of these three areas briefly and then expand on each over the next few weeks.

Too often I see people who are like leaves - just floating along in the current. Wherever it takes them is where they will end up. This is no way to manage your investments. If you care about reaching your financial destination, I believe you have to grab hold of the rudder and steer. With mutual funds, you completely give over control to someone else.

You do not control what stocks the fund invests in or whether the fund even sticks to its stated investment objective. This is known as style slip. You don't control who is managing your money or what they are investing it in.

You also don't control when the fund makes taxable distributions. This makes planning difficult and in certain situations, this can cause you to pay unnecessary taxes or penalties.

Transparency is the second problem. In fact, it is Wall Street's biggest problem. But I won't go down that rabbit hole for now.

You don't really know what your mutual fund owns. It generally only reports the top holdings and often well after the fact. Many mutual funds actually invest in exchange traded funds but few include that information when they report their holdings.

The combination of style slip, also known as closet indexing, globalization, and lack of transparency in fund holdings, makes it difficult - if not impossible - to create a truly diversified portfolio. You would be amazed at how correlated, if not actually duplicative, the holdings of your various funds really are.

And speaking of those exchange traded funds inside a mutual fund - why don't we hear more about that? The fund buys an exchange traded fund that mimics the index. That does two things. It adds an undisclosed layer of costs - the management fee of the ETF. But what should really burn investors is the fund manager continues to charge you active management fees.  The fund is basically charging you for work it did not do! What the heck is that about?

Also, did you know that the way mutual funds are required to report their returns, doesn't tell you how much an investor in that fund would have made or lost? Their return numbers tell you how much the stocks in a funds portfolio went up or down - but they don't tell you how the fund's investor's fared. Often, that is a very different story depending on the timing of the investment.

More disconcerting, you don't really know what you are paying for management. There is no line item showing the debit for fees. They are hidden. And don't count on the prospectus to clue you in.

There are three layers of costs that do not have to be disclosed in the prospectus: transaction, market impact and spread costs.  Academic studies indicate these costs can add an additional 2% to the stated management fee.

I probably wouldn't get my hackles up over these fees if the performance of these portfolio managers offset the costs, but they don't. According to Morningstar, the average domestic equity fund with a track record of at least 15 years, trails the S&P 500 by 2%. So what are we paying them for?

Does 2% matter? Oh my gosh does it matter! Do the math.

Let's take an average actively managed mutual fund with an expense ratio of one and a half percent, which is cheap compared to many mutual funds. Let's compare that with a low expense strategy that has a hypothetical expense ratio of .2 percent. If we apply that to a $250,000 investment and assume that both can earn 10% compounded over the next 20 years, the difference is almost $378,000.

Now consider your required rate of return. To pay yourself 4% of your portfolio each year in retirement, keep up with the historical rate of inflation and pay Uncle Sam at a marginal tax rate of 25%, you have to earn a 10% return. The formula is the withdrawal rate plus the rate of inflation divided by one minus your marginal tax rate, or (.04 + .035) / (1 - .25) = 10%.

If your required rate of return is 10% and your mutual funds return 2% less than their benchmark indexes because of the drag from fees, can you afford to invest in mutual funds? 

Bottom line - you can do better.


Kim Snider is the President and Founder of Snider Advisors, a SEC Registered Investment Advisor, focused on solving the problem of retirement income for long-time planners, savers and investors who still find themselves wondering if they will have enough. For more information on Snider Advisors or the Snider Investment Method and how we may be able to help you make your retirement savings go farther than you thought, please visit snideradvisors.com.

Snider Advisors makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments, including the Snider Investment Method™ are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.

March 17, 2008

You Can Do Better

Let's look at some facts:

  • 2/3 of all actively managed mutual funds return less than the market itself in any given year.
  • The funds which outperform the market are different from year to year.
  • The raw returns of equally weighted mutual funds (net of all expenses) for 1996 to 2002 were 6.626% for investors working on their own and 2.924% for funds chosen by advisors.
  • Management fees cost the investor approximately 2% a year.
  • All but about 13% of investment advisors are not paid by you. They work for commissions from the companies whose products they sell. If they don't meet their sales quota, they are fired.

So let me ask you a question - what are you paying them for? These numbers tell us the majority of investment advisors do not add value to the process - they destroy value. Does it matter? You bet it does.

Broker There is a completely practical reason to learn to manage your own money. Let's look at the cost of a money manager over time using the results of the BCT study which puts the return of the self-directed investor at 6.26% and the advisor at 2.924%.

Imagine it is 1996 and you and your neighbor both have $200,000 portfolios. Your neighbor manages his own portfolio. You turn yours over to an advisor. At the end of 2002, you have $244,707. Your neighbor has $305,928. That's 25% more money.

If we extend those numbers out into time, the differential becomes even more pronounced. After 10 years the differential is 38% and after 30 years, your neighbor has $761,481 more than you!

Your financial advisor would love for you to continue to buy into the myth that you can't possibly be a successful investor unless their steady hand is at the helm. I beg to differ. The data just clearly refutes that lie.

Your financial advisor would love for you to continue to buy into the myth that managing your own portfolio requires hours and hours of time that you don't have. I beg to differ. The data clearly refutes that lie too.

Whether you turn your money over to a financial advisor or manage it yourself, you are solely responsible for whatever situation you find yourself in - not your broker, not your CPA, not your spouse - you.

Turning it over to a financial advisor almost guarantees two things: 1) you will have significantly less than if you do it yourself; and 2) you will be turning over control of your financial future to someone who, by definition, has to be concerned about their own financial future.

The data is clear. You can do better. That is why we teach you to how to do it yourself.

SOURCE:

1. Bergstresser, Daniel B., Chalmers, John M.R. and Tufano, Peter, "Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Brokers in the Mutual Fund Industry" (January 16, 2006). AFA 2006 Boston Meetings, Forthcoming Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=616981


Kim Snider is the President and Founder of Snider Advisors, a SEC Registered Investment Advisor, focused on solving the problem of retirement income for long-time planners, savers and investors who still find themselves wondering if they will have enough. For more information on Snider Advisors or the Snider Investment Method and how we may be able to help you make your retirement savings go farther than you thought, please visit snideradvisors.com.

Snider Advisors makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments, including the Snider Investment Method™ are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.

Focus of This Blog

Kim Snider is an author, speaker and host of Financial Success Coaching, Saturdays at noon, on KRLD Newsradio 1080, Dallas - Fort Worth. This blog is primarily devoted to empowering individual investors with information to help them be good stewards of their money. Above all, it is about achieving true financial success. Kim's book, How To Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps to Put Your Financial House in Order is in bookstores now. Order yours from Amazon or other fine booksellers today.

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