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Kim Snider

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February 28, 2008

Wickedly Funny YouTube Subprime Video

In general, my articles tend to be fairly serious. But, I think every once in awhile some humor is in order. As Mignon McLaughlin said, "A sense of humor is a major defense against minor troubles."

 

There is far too much doom and gloom these days. I am as aware as anybody of the number of people losing their homes, the high price of oil, the falling dollar and the volatile stock market. But I think the press drives us to unhealthy extremes of sentiment, especially when it comes to the economy and the stock market.

 

It scares me, the extent to which the press, which is largely ignorant of economics or finance, takes a stand that is so transparently intended to sensationalize rather inform, influences the day-to-day sentiment of tens of millions of otherwise bright people.

 

Let me give you an example. A day or two ago, the press started putting out headlines suggesting markets were reacting to a "fear of stagflation." All of a sudden, my inbox was flooded with emails mentioning stagflation, as if it were an invading army amassing on our border. "Should I change my portfolio given we are about to go into a period of stagflation?" Aggghhh!

 

The popularity of so-called fake news shows, like The Daily Show or The Colbert Report, (I hope) show us that Americans are pretty fed up with what passes for journalism today. Or maybe that is just me projecting how fed up I am onto everyone else. Who knows.

 

Good satire turns the words of the subject against them, and simply by reformulating them, shows us the absurdity of the original statement. In keeping with that sentiment, I offer you a spot on version of recent financial events from John Bird and John Fortune from the South Bank Show.

 

At last, British humor I can relate to! Thanks to Joe Mikus for the heads up on this one. FYI - run time is about 8 minutes.

 

 

Kim Snider Financial Communications makes no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Individual results may vary.

January 31, 2007

Forced Retirement

While 67% of workers say they expect to work for pay after age 65, a new survey indicates that, in reality, the opposite is happening. Sun Life Financial released a survey in which 22% of respondents said they had to retire earlier than they expected—an average of seven years earlier.

 

Layoffs and corporate downsizing were most often the reason for early retirement. Other reasons for leaving work included illness, injury and family obligations. These numbers jibe with similar numbers produced by the Employee Benefits Research Institute.

 

“It appears that unanticipated, forced retirement is occurring at an alarming rate, leaving the impacted retirees unprepared,” says Mary Fay, vice president and general manager of annuities at Sun Life Assurance Co. of Canada (U.S.)

 

[…]

 

Sixty-nine percent of respondents said their retirement plans have been impacted to a great extent or somewhat by leaving work early, forcing them to reduce expenses and change their lifestyles.

 

That is not surprising given only 70% of workers are saving for retirement and among those who are, 52% have savings and investments totaling less than $50,000!

 

I think the majority of Americans are delusional when it comes to the issue of saving and investing for retirement. Others think stories of the impending retirement income crisis are over-blown fear-mongering. What do you think and why? Leave your thoughts and comments below.

 

 

SOURCES:

 

1. "One In Five Americans Are Forced To Retire Early, Survey Finds"; Financial Advisor; Jan 2007; p 26.

http://www.fa-mag.com/issues.php?id_content=2&idIssue=117&show=fronline

 

2. Employee Benefits Research Institute and Matthew Greenwald & Associates, Inc. "Will More Of Us Be Working Forever?: The 2006 Retirement Confidence Survey" EBRI Issue Brief Number 292; April, 2006.

http://www.ebri.com/pdf/EBRI_IB_04-2006_1.pdf

 

Kim Snider, Kim Snider Financial Communications, Chronim Investments and/or Snider Advisors make no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments are subject to risk including possible loss of principal.

 

January 08, 2007

Fire Bill Parcells?

I couldn't sleep I was so heart-broken about the ending of the Seattle game Saturday night. It was all anyone could talk about at our company party Sunday afternoon. Even my Mother called to say, "Could you believe that?" And she hates football!

 

I love football. Yeah, there are people more passionate about their teams than I am. Don't get me wrong. I AM a Dallas Cowboy fan (even though I swore up and down I couldn't support a team that signed T.O.) But it is the game of football I love, more than the team.

 

I would have loved to have played football. And I would still love to own a football team.

 

I am pretty sure most football fans are also investors, if only in their 401(k). And it strikes me how differently they approach the two games. (Yes, investing is a game. The most important game of all, played for the ultimate prize - money - against some of the brightest minds in the world. Win and you have a secure retirement. Lose and you must live a life of anxiety and uncertainty, relying on the charity of others.)

 

Football fans are incredibly quick to call for a coach's head. Unreasonably hasty if you want to know my opinion. Bill Parcells has been the Cowboy coach for four years. His 3-4 defense has only been in place one year. But the sports talk air waves are filled with talk about "Bill Parcells must go" and "His defense isn't working."

 

So isn’t it interesting that those same people, who are so adamant about making a change when their defense doesn't work, won't fire their financial coach when their financial defense fails?

 

It has been thirty years since Congress passed ERISA and the burden of saving and investing for retirement was put on the individual. Wall Street has had thirty years to come up with a game plan for replacing our W-2 income. Our financial advisors have had thirty years to prepare us for the big game.

 

And yet, here we sit, nearing the end of the fourth quarter and we don't have clue what to do because our coaches have failed us. 76 million baby boomers are lurching inexorably toward 65 and 80% of them do not have enough money.

 

Whose fault is that? Some of it is ours. But the bulk of the blame has to fall squarely on the shoulders of the coaches - our financial advisors - who are calling plays out of a playbook from the 1950s. The playbook is called Modern Portfolio Theory.

 

The world has changed. Just like football has changed. Pick a great coach from that era. Vince Lombardi is credited with creating zone blocking - something that is commonplace in modern football. He was also known as a master at motivating his players. His speeches are still quoted today. "Winning isn't everything. It's the only thing." Ring a bell?

 

But if Vince Lombardi came back to life and tried to coach a team using the playbook from 1967 and used the same motivation techniques on the prima donna, $10M a year players of today, I doubt he would win a single game. He'd be an abject failure.

 

Why? Because he is a bad coach? Of course not. Because he would be applying an old set of ideas to a modern problem.

 

In football, as in all things, the old guard is eventually replaced by those that have been waiting in the wings - the assistant coaches and coordinators. And while they were waiting they were thinking up new and better ways to do what those that came before them had done. Football constantly replaces old ideas with new and more effective ideas. It adapts quickly.

 

Investors need to do the same. There are many new plays out there you can add to your retirement savings playbook - my favorite, and one of the most popular being to use options to manage risk and create portfolio income. Lots of people are doing it and are having great success.

 

I believe you are locked in an epic struggle with dire lifetime consequences. The prize is nothing less than the financial security of you and your family. I am just curious. How long are you going to stick with Vince Lombardi?

 

Kim Snider, Kim Snider Financial Communications, Chronim Investments and/or Snider Advisors make no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments are subject to risk including possible loss of principal.

December 11, 2006

Financial Advisors Useless Says Study

According to a ground-breaking study, the raw returns of equally weighted mutual funds (net of all expenses) for 1996 to 2002 were 6.626% for investors working on their own and 2.924% for funds chosen by advisors.

 

In other words, the do-it-yourselfer did more than 100% better than financial advisors when it came to selecting equity mutual funds. After factoring in inflation and taxes, clients of financial advisors lost money and lost purchasing power. This should be criminal.

 

The study, "Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Brokers in the Mutual Fund Industry" is written by Daniel Bergstresser of Harvard Business School, John Chalmers of the University of Oregon, and Peter Tufano of Harvard Business School. You are going to be hearing a lot more about this study in the months and years to come. Some are calling it one of the seminal studies of the decade, like those done on asset allocation in the past.

 

The BCT study (after the initials of the author's last names) is an exhaustive analysis of the cost and performance of more than 4,000 mutual funds sold by financial advisors as compared to those selected by investors on their own over the years 1996 to 2002. This is the first study ever to scientifically quantify the benefits of using financial advisors.

 

The study attempts to find tangible evidence of a benefit from hiring an advisor by answering these five questions. It appears they came up empty-handed!

 

1. Do investors who hire advisors get access to funds that would otherwise be harder to find or evaluate? The answer is yes, but as already noted, advisor-selected funds underperform funds that investors select on their own.

 

2. Do advisors help clients find funds that are lower cost (excluding distribution costs)? After analyzing several trillion dollars worth of transactions, the answer is no. In fact, another new study released in late November by the Zero Alpha Group (ZAG) and Fund Democracy supports this finding. Their study showed investors who buy index funds through brokers pay half a percentage point more in management fees than do independent investors who go through no-load channels - for essentially the same fund.

 

3. Do advisors give clients access to funds with better performance? Once again, the answer here is a resounding no. Contrary to everything we are led to believe, the evidence shows that advisors not only underperform indexes--they underperform what most people do on their own if they don't have an advisor. If that is not a damning indictment, I don't know what is!

 

4. Do advisors provide superior asset allocation? After years of research covering trillions of dollars of asset allocations, the finding is that advisors do not provide superior asset allocation. They are as likely to get caught up in the hot sector as we are - possibly more likely.

 

5. Do advisors help correct bad investor behavior such as chasing fads and chasing performance? Unfortunately, no. In fact, the evidence shows that advisors even contribute to such behavior.

 

Lest you think the authors were biased against advisors, let me set you straight. They went out of their way to give advisors the benefit of the doubt. Not only that, they were aided in their research by some of the largest and most respected industry groups and research organizations.

 

One last thing that is worth noting - this study also found that the clients of advisors are less educated and have lower net worth than do-it-yourselfers. You can certainly make a chicken and the egg argument here. But still, let's call a spade a spade. Using an advisor to choose your investments is just plain dumb when you can do better on your own.

 

What does this mean?

 

Get educated about personal finance in general and investing more specifically. If you need help, avoid commissioned sales-people like the plague. Seek out someone you can pay a one-time fee, by the hour or a retainer if necessary.

 

No one is going to take care of your money for you. The only person who has no conflict of interest is you. The person best qualified to handle your money is you -or at least you should be. If you are not, you need to get cracking, right now.

 

My thanks to Snider Investment Method™ investor Wayne Jackson for bringing this study to my attention. We are going to try to get one of the authors of the study on the radio show. In the meantime, I am curious about what you think. Do these findings surprise you? Do they prompt to you to change what you are doing? Please leave your thoughts and comments below.

 

SOURCES:

 

1. Barbara Whelehan. "Do-It-Yourself Investors Win the Race." BankRate.com 6 Dec 2006. http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/061206/20408.html

 

2. Donald Moine. "The Study of the Decade." MorningStar Advisor 22 June 2006. http://advisor.morningstar.com/articles/doc.asp?s=1&docId=4482&pgNo=0

 

3. Bergstresser, Daniel B., Chalmers, John M.R. and Tufano, Peter, "Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Brokers in the Mutual Fund Industry" (January 16, 2006). AFA 2006 Boston Meetings, Forthcoming Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=616981

 

4. Mercer Bullard and Edward S. O'Neal. "The Costs of Using a Broker to Select Mutual Funds." Zero Alpha Group November 2006.

http://www.zeroalphagroup.com/news/113006_release.cfm

 

Kim Snider, Kim Snider Financial Communications, Chronim Investments and/or Snider Advisors make no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments are subject to risk including possible loss of principal.

 

January 08, 2006

Investment Advice From Mark Cuban

I love Mark Cuban. I didn't want to like him. When he first bought the Dallas Mavericks I thought "Ugh!" Here is some young punk who got lucky, made a billion dollars in the Internet bubble that he probably doesn't deserve, and has bought the Mavericks to show everyone that he can.

 

Then I heard him speak. He was phenomenal. No airs. No bull. Just straight from the hip. I realized in that 90 minutes that, while he may have been in the right place at the right time, there was serious business acumen behind the bad boy image.

 

I left that program with a tremendous amount of admiration. That admiration has only grown as I have watched him over the years. As businesspeople, we share many of the same values. Truth-telling, putting the customers best interest ahead of your own, being accessible, and having fun with it.

 

Everyone wants to know what you have to say about the stock market when you are a billionaire. Mark Cuban gives us his investment advice for 2006, which is, not coincidentally, right in line with my own. Here are a few choice excerpts:

 

Every year at this time, everyone and anyone who has a vested interest in selling stocks comes out and talks about how great a year its going to be in the stock market.  Of course its all nonsense and bullshit. NO ONE knows what the market is going to do. Not timers. Not technical charts. Not economists, Not brokerage Heads of Research, Not stock pickers. No one.

 

[ … ]

 

According to an ad for one family of mutual funds, there are 17,000 mutual funds on the market for purchase.  How amazing is that ? How in the world can there be 17,000 fund managers that are worth a damn ? There cant be. How many are good ? How many suck ? How many of the funds will close every year taking your money with them ? Are you completely confident in the fund that is taking money from your paycheck every 2 weeks ?

 

Then of course there are the brokerages. I swear that there are few things that turn my stomach on TV more than watching commercials for brokerages. The guy who gives the toast at the wedding, Paul McCartney, the guy from Law & Order, all trying to con people into thinking that any of their stockbrokers can take you to a financial promised land.

 

[ … ]

 

Simple, avoid risk.

 

Risk is what Wall Street lies about every day. Risk is what they try to sweep under the covers knowing that we all are addicted to the dream of financial freedom. Risk is the poison that is masked by the commercials.

 

[ … ]

 

You can however make the personal decision to avoid risk. Avoiding risk allows you to sleep at night. Avoiding risk allows you to have more at the end of the year than when you started.

 

Lots of people spent a lot of money on commissions this year. If you put your money in the bank, in a CD or in treasuries, you not only slept better than them, there is a very, very good chance you kicked their ass in total return. Your interest compounded, they probably paid interest on their investments.

 

I get emails every day asking me where people should invest. I tell them all the same thing, and I will say it here. Put your money in interest earning investments.

 

Amen Mark! What he is saying is you should avoid risk and put your money in something that provides a consistent payment or paycheck. You know I agree although I know a place where I can get significantly better interest than treasuries with only slightly more risk. The full text of Cuban's post is on his blog, Blog Maverick, and is worth the read.

 

Kim Snider, Kim Snider Financial Communications, Chronim Investments and/or Snider Advisors make no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments are subject to risk including possible loss of principal.

 

November 10, 2004

Following Peter Lynch

When you start pointing out that it is impossible to use stock picking or market timing to beat the market over any long period of time, one of the first rebuttals you will get from inveterate gamblers is "What about Peter Lynch?"

 

Without discussing the fallacy of Peter Lynch's track record, (which I will do at some point), I did find an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal. Even if his track record was as good as the myth, we know every investor will have his disasters. It seems a lot of people followed Peter Lynch into exactly that.

 

According to the Wall Street Journal, a 2003 filing with the SEC showed Peter Lynch bought 1.8 million shares of the tiny company SafeScript. Hundreds of people followed Peter Lynch into that stock on the basis of his legendary Midas touch, and then disaster struck. The company filed for bankruptcy and is being sued by the SEC.

 

Lynch says he was baffled and did not sell his stock on the way down. "It was a total surprise, out of left field," he says. "It's a terrible tragedy."

 

The Wall Street Journal reports similar cases with other famous investors:

 

"In July 2002, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. bought convertible bonds of Level 3 Communications Inc. Investors jumped into Level 3's stock and drove it up 50%, to $4.36 a share. By February 2004, it was at $7.40. Only then did investors learn that Buffett had converted his bonds to Level 3 stock two months earlier -- and sold it. Level 3's share price is now down by half."

 

In fact, Warren Buffett grew so tired of people following his moves that he tried to get special dispensation from having to disclose his holdings. The SEC denied his request.

 

These cases show how badly things can go wrong when the average investor tries to mimic celebrity stock-pickers. Anyone who owns more than 5% of a company is required to report that to the SEC, making it easier for small investors to find out what they are buying.

 

But remember, you aren't a big investor. Investors like Peter Lynch sometimes are getting stock more cheaply than the ordinary investor, by buying bonds convertible into stock or by doing deals with the target company such as purchasing shares directly from it.

 

In fact, Peter Lynch is part of a group that has come in to buy SafeScript for $3 million. He will likely get some or all of his money out of the deal where the little guys that followed him in, lost their entire investment.

 

Warren Buffett isn't a great stock picker. He is a great businessman. When he buys stock in a company, he buys "the company"! He buys enough stock to get seats on the board and often management control. He can materially affect the management of the company - and does! You can't do that.

 

I think stock picking is a fool's game that you should avoid, but if you insist on picking individual stocks, the moral of this story is to do it based on your own research, not something you read in the Wall Street Journal about a famous stock picker.

 

I often say in my workshops, you are playing a totally different game than these guys are, with a totally different rule book. To expect to compete, and win, using the wrong rule book is foolhardy. My solution was to find a different game that I could play with these guys on a level playing field.

 

SOURCES:

 

1. Dugan, Ianthe Jeanne. "Copying Peter Lynch, Investors Bought a Stock, Watched It Tank." Wall Street Journal 15 Oct. 2004, A1.

 

Kim Snider, Kim Snider Financial Communications, Chronim Investments and/or Snider Advisors make no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments are subject to risk including possible loss of principal.

Focus of This Blog


  • Kim Snider is an author, speaker and host of Financial Success Coaching, Saturdays at noon, on KRLD Newsradio 1080, Dallas - Fort Worth. This blog is primarily devoted to empowering individual investors with information to help them be good stewards of their money. Above all, it is about achieving true financial success. Kim's book, How To Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps to Put Your Financial House in Order will be in bookstores in October.

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