February 22, 2007
The following are the minutes of the first meeting of the "Joint Task Force" formed at the SIM Open Space to work on rigorously tested improvements to the Snider Investment Method™. The task force is comprised of Snider alumni as well as KSFC and Chronim staff. Thanks to James B. for running point and producing the minutes.
Meeting Minutes 02/15/07
Attendees: James, Jesse, John C., Tom, Kim, Ron, Kevin
Agenda topics information:
- Volunteer information: I have now heard from all of the folks from the open space meeting as well as the 2 folks that were unable to make it. With John Cooley and Kevin Konecney joining since I sent out the spreadsheet, the current volunteer count is at 13.
- Open space meeting minutes: I sent out the specifics of our meeting minutes. Kim has let us know that the meeting minutes from all of the sessions will be made available via the Snider Insider in a summarized format.
- Yahoo Group
discussion. I opened the topic up for discussion. We had some folks
comment on the positives of a yahoo group:
- A common place for documents
- Allows for ‘timeshifting’ – meaning I can work on something when I have availability, and then post it, then someone else can work on it when they have time.
- You can set it up to keep you ‘up to date’ in batch mode – rather then getting bombarded with notifications at every posting.
- Allows for a moderator to restrict/grand access
- Decision at this time – Not Yet. If / when things get too complex for direct email communications then I/we will set one up as necessary.
- Survey of Skills. One recommendation made by a volunteer was to take a survey of skills to we know what expertise (give or take) that we have within this group. The call attendees thought it was a good idea, so I will follow up with an email asking for folks to give HIGH LEVEL skills they posses.
- Kim – explain “tackle
the issue of stock selection criteria”. Kim explained that it is an area
that she and Jim have discussed a lot since the open space meeting. Jim’s
recommendation is that this team takes a hard look at all factors that
could be considered to be used as additional stock selection criteria, and
compare past results from the Chronim accounts to determine if there may
be some criteria that could be indicative of a forthcoming ‘Dog’. We
discussed at length why this might be a beneficial area for this team to
start working in. The primary reasons being:
- It is something that folks are passionate about changing – as shown by the multiple discussions of Dogs and Winters at the open space.
- It is an area where there may be some ‘lower hanging fruit’ might be available to add criteria to the stock selection criteria.
- It is something that this team could sink its teeth into, and possible come out with a win (suggestion) to give this group legs (to keep running).
- It is an area where this team may be able to interact with other alumni and use their feedback and/or provide them feedback.
regarding historical data: Primarily Jesse and Clayce are looking into the
options available for historical data (Morning Star, Value Line, the
Chicago datasources, etc). Some recommendations made: Make sure it has
data available that was available ‘at the time’ – meaning:
- Before adjustments for Splits. (may run into $25 minimum price rule)
- Before Restatements have been applied. (best case scenario, have both)
- Updatable – keeping it up to date, as well as growing with new info at time passes
- No one has seen a source with both Stock and Option pricing history – would have to be separate.
- Tom shared with us
a high level description of his model. He has tried to (and successfully)
reproduce historically any stock beginning in any month back to Jan 2000.
He has been attempting to put the decisions demonstrated in the Method
Book into code. He has been gathering historical data from several sources
and has backtested his own transactions (he has 6 months worth) as well as
other positions that have gone into winter that others have shared with
him. It is not a complete and comprehensive model. There is much to add to
get the whole process in the model. (for example it doesn’t include
assigned cash to other positions and stake calculations etc…) Tom (and
others) shared some modeling insights:
- Models can cause problems – you begin to believe what your model says
- Models can be good tools to perform some ‘what if’ analysis
- Models can be good to test what is ‘reasonable’
- Models can help give you insight
- There are different types of models: Empirical, Statistical, and Heuristic.
- Having historical (and correct historical) data is VERY important
- We then discussed
the problems with building a full blown model around the Snider Method:
- The method itself, and the options usage in the method has only been available for a short period of time (in comparison with stocks and stock pricing).
- Therefore, you cannot perform massive amounts of back testing (limited to really late 1990s or early 2000s).
- Also, therefore, you cannot historically model the method against varying economic trends (only those that have occurred over the last 6-8 years).
- Some metrics are not re-creatable based on pure historical data – like the overall ‘mood of the market’.
- At this point the
conversation moved to the discussion of What this team
could/should do, and how should/could we move forward. Several points came
out of this discussion:
- The approach of building – from day one – a completely comprehensive model to account for everything – would be TOO MUCH of an undertaking. It would take a great deal of time, and there would be little to show in terms of progress along the way.
- Instead, we discussed taking on smaller pieces at a time. Working towards smaller deliverables, and building momentum through delivering accomplishments.
- This led to the discussion of using the Stock Selection Criteria as an initial effort.
- We also discussed the benefits of breaking the tasks into pieces, and having small subgroups (or individuals) work on them to help accomplish the overall goal.
- We decided there
were a few activities that can all be worked on at once (in parallel), if
individuals or subgroups volunteer to take them on. The items discussed
were the following:
- Tom’s Model (TM): Tom is going to continue the work on his model
- Stock Selection
(SS): Prepare Data:
- Chronim needs to prepare their data for availability (meaning stripping out any customer identify information)
- Purchase the historical data
- SS: Identify the
‘Area of Focus’:
- Define the characteristics of the positions that this effort is trying to eliminate (What makes a position a ‘dog’? ‘undesirable’?)
- Tag positions as Desirable vs. Undesirable
- SS: Perform DB
- Define what database format will allow for the best flexibility
- Create the DB structure
- Determine the best way to load the data
- Format the existing (stripped) .xls files for import into DB
- Build DB structures to hold historical data
- Import the purchased data into DB (make it usable)
- General (G):
Other general activities
- Gather insight
from unofficial Snider Alumni Yahoo Group
- Catalog ideas for data points (factors) that are to be considered against ‘Undesirable’ vs. ‘Desirable’ positions.
- Catalog currently circulating ‘tweaks’ to the method for the potential of identifying another area to investigate.
- Gather insight
from Open Space meeting notes
- Gather insight from unofficial Snider Alumni Yahoo Group
- SS: Perform
- Identify the data points (factors) that are to be considered against ‘Undesirable’ vs. ‘Desirable’ positions. – Maybe driven by historical data provided
- Discover averages of the factors for Undesirables vs. Desirables
- Determine if significant differences exist
- Determine a cutoff point – compare Desirables and Undesirables that would be eliminated
- Finally – see if any recommendations emerge
- Finally, we decided
to end the call, I would write up these minutes, layout for everyone the
tasks identified, and see who would be willing to volunteer to work on the
Kim Snider, Kim Snider Financial Communications, Chronim Investments and/or Snider Advisors make no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments are subject to risk including possible loss of principal.
May 03, 2006
The following is in response to the Newsletter request for the Bora Bora Blog info:
It will be difficult to describe, but in a word Bora Bora to me means "Peace". I can not begin to explain what has been a true "Life Changing Experience". Thank God there are people like Kim Snider in this world who truly want to share their hard earned knowledge to help people like me. I am doing "exactly" what I said I would do with my income. Spending more time with my family. I found another bonus. I can afford to go back to college and get my teacher's certification so I can continue to be on the same schedule as my kids. Hope you enjoy the pictures as much as I enjoyed being in the places to take them.
March 31, 2006
In the manager’s meeting on Wednesday we discussed key metrics of our businesses. The topic of obtaining feedback on training and client services came up more than once. Earlier this morning I was reading some posts in the Marketing section of the blog, Church of the Customer, and I found an interesting article about Customink.
Apparently they show the results of all the survey’s their customers complete after buying t-shirts from them and they post the results of their client satisfaction score right on their home page. Kim, did you happen to see this too? I submitted a request through their email support for the contact information of someone who can tell me how they are administering the survey and posting the results.
They also post the scores and comments of the last 25 surveys. They call it Customink Uncensored. Take a look by clicking on the image below and a larger image will popup. If anyone has any ideas about collecting client satisfaction information, please share them.