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February 11, 2005
Consensus Estimates On Interest Rates Well Wide Of The Mark
It's not just the direction of stock prices that can't be predicted consistently. In The Triumph of Contrarian Investing by Ned Davis, of the eponymous and well respected Ned Davis Research (McGraw-Hill, 2003), Davis reported an analysis of the forecast accuracy of 50 economists for 42 forecasts of interest rates only six months into the future, as reported in The Wall Street Journal from 1982 to 2002. In that study, the economist consensus provided the right direction for the change in interest rates in only 12 of the 42 cases, or less than 1 of 3 tries!
Kim Snider, Kim Snider Financial Communications, Chronim Investments and/or Snider Advisors make no representation that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or current. The opinions expressed should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other advice and are provided for informational purposes only. Call 866-952-0100 to request the Snider Investment Method™ Owner's Manual, which includes a description of the Snider Investment Method, investment objectives, risks, suitability and other information. Please read and consider carefully before investing. All investments are subject to risk including possible loss of principal.
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Kim Snider is an author, speaker and host of Financial Success Coaching, Saturdays at noon, on KRLD Newsradio 1080, Dallas - Fort Worth. This blog is primarily devoted to empowering individual investors with information to help them be good stewards of their money. Above all, it is about achieving true financial success. Kim's book, How To Be the Family CFO: Four Simple Steps to Put Your Financial House in Order is in bookstores now. Order yours from Amazon or other fine booksellers today.
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